TRX Price Prediction: Analyzing the Path to 2040 Amidst Technical Breakout and Institutional Adoption

#TRX

• Bullish Technical Structure: TRX price is trading above its 20-day moving average with a converging MACD, indicating weakening selling pressure and a potential setup for a significant upward move, as suggested by the Bollinger Band compression.
• Major Institutional Catalysts: The launch of USDC-settled TRX options on Deribit and, more importantly, TRX's inclusion on Grayscale's expanded investment watchlist provide substantial legitimacy and pave the way for increased institutional capital and product development.
• Long-Term Utility Growth: Price forecasts through 2040 are underpinned by TRON's positioning within high-growth trends like tokenization and Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN), driving demand for the TRX token beyond mere speculation.

TRX Price Prediction

Technical Analysis: TRX Shows Bullish Momentum Above Key Moving Average

As of January 15, 2026, TRX is trading at 0.30300000 USDT, positioning itself above the 20-day moving average of 0.293025. This is a positive technical signal, suggesting underlying strength. The MACD indicator, while still negative at -0.009652 for the signal line and -0.007637 for the MACD line, shows a narrowing histogram at -0.002015. This indicates that bearish momentum is weakening, and a potential bullish crossover could be forming. Furthermore, the current price sits comfortably above the middle Bollinger Band (0.293025) and is approaching the upper band at 0.307778. 'A sustained MOVE above the 20-day MA, coupled with a tightening MACD, often precedes an upward thrust,' notes BTCC financial analyst Michael. 'The Bollinger Band squeeze suggests volatility compression, which typically resolves with a significant price move. The bias appears to be tilting upward.'

Institutional Adoption Fuels Positive Sentiment for TRX

Recent news flow significantly bolsters the constructive technical outlook for TRX. The expansion of altcoin derivatives by Deribit, specifically introducing USDC-settled TRX options, provides institutional investors with sophisticated tools for exposure and hedging. This enhances market depth and legitimacy. More notably, Grayscale's decision to include TRX in its expanded Q1 2026 Watchlist, now covering 36 assets focused on trends like tokenization and DePIN, is a major vote of confidence. 'Inclusion in a Grayscale watchlist is a precursor to potential investment product development and signals that the asset is on the radar of major traditional finance players,' explains BTCC financial analyst Michael. 'This dual news of improved derivatives infrastructure and recognition by a giant like Grayscale creates a fundamentally supportive environment that aligns with the current technical breakout potential.'

Factors Influencing TRX’s Price

Deribit Expands Altcoin Derivatives with USDC-Settled AVAX and TRX Options

Deribit has launched USDC-settled options contracts for Avalanche (AVAX) and Tron (TRX), marking a strategic expansion of its altcoin derivatives offerings. The move caters to institutional and retail demand for structured exposure to mid-cap tokens while maintaining USDC as the settlement anchor.

Each AVAX option represents 100 tokens, aligning with Deribit's existing altcoin contract standards. TRX options are sized at 10,000 tokens per contract. Both products enable covered call strategies for yield generation and protective puts for downside hedging—critical tools in the current volatile market.

The exchange continues leveraging Circle's stablecoin for settlements, rewards, and platform accounting. This development follows Deribit's earlier introduction of USDC-settled perpetuals for both assets, reinforcing its position as a leader in crypto derivatives innovation.

Grayscale Expands Q1 2026 Watchlist with Four New Tokens Across AI, Smart Contracts, and Utilities

Grayscale has broadened its digital asset watchlist from 32 to 36 tokens, signaling continued institutional interest in crypto beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Q1 2026 update introduces TRON for smart contracts, ARIA Protocol for consumer applications, and AI-focused tokens Nous Research and Poseidon. DoubleZero joins the utilities category, reflecting Grayscale's emphasis on long-term infrastructure themes.

The procedural update, completed within 15 days of quarter-end, serves as a pipeline for potential future products rather than a guarantee. Regulatory and operational hurdles mean not all watchlisted assets will materialize as investment vehicles. Grayscale maintains its sector-based framework, categorizing assets across smart contracts, finance, consumer, AI, and utilities.

Established memecoins like DOGE and emerging players such as BONK remain under consideration alongside the new additions. The expansion occurs as institutional adoption grows, with asset managers increasingly viewing crypto sectors as distinct investment themes rather than a monolithic asset class.

Grayscale Expands Altcoin Watchlist to 36 Assets for Q1 2026, Highlighting Tokenization, DePIN, and AI Trends

Grayscale Investments has unveiled its Q1 2026 "Assets Under Consideration" watchlist, adding four new altcoins to bring the total to 36 candidates for potential investment products. The move follows recent filings for BNB and Hyperliquid (HYPE) ETF trusts in Delaware, marking preliminary steps toward possible fund launches.

The updated list introduces Tron (TRX) to smart contract platforms and ARIA Protocol to Consumer & Culture, while the AI category gains Nous Research and Poseidon. DoubleZero (2Z) joins Utilities & Services as a DePIN solution for blockchain infrastructure. Three thematic focuses emerge: tokenization of assets, decentralized physical networks, and artificial intelligence applications.

Grayscale organizes assets across five verticals—Smart Contract Platforms, Financials, Consumer & Culture, AI, and Utilities & Services—reflecting institutional growing interest in crypto sector diversification. The expansion from 32 assets in Q4 2025 signals accelerating evaluation of emerging blockchain use cases.

TRX Price Predictions: 2026, 2030, 2035, 2040 Forecasts

Based on the current technical setup showing a breakout above key moving averages and waning bearish momentum, combined with strong fundamental catalysts like institutional derivatives adoption and Grayscale's watchlist inclusion, the outlook for TRX is optimistic. The following forecasts consider a base case of continued ecosystem growth, mainstream adoption of blockchain utilities, and TRON's established position in smart contracts and decentralized applications. These are long-term projections and should be viewed as directional guidance rather than precise targets, as cryptocurrency markets are inherently volatile.

'The confluence of technical strength and fundamental tailwinds creates a compelling case for TRX,' states BTCC financial analyst Michael. 'While short-term fluctuations are expected, the trajectory for the next decade and beyond is decidedly upward, supported by real-world utility and growing institutional embrace.'